Welcome Offer Arbitrage Planner
Roughly estimate the total expected value of new-customer promos across different books. Add each promo, choose its type, and plug in simple assumptions like size, conversion rate, or boost percentage. If you are utilizing these promotions with others, don't forget to use friend referrals which, depending on the sportsbook, can give both you and the referrer more free money. Another thing to remember is that DFS platforms also offer welcome bonuses with quick and easy arbitrage opportunities. With that said, keep in mind that hedging bets on DFS platforms typically require a slighltly different approach than traditional sportsbooks with smaller guaranteed profits. As always, NEVER HEDGE A WAGER ON THE SAME PLATFORM, a tactic that can lead a sportsbook to void wagers and suspend account.
These are back-of-the-envelope estimates meant to help you think about the opportunity set, not precise guarantees.
Add your promos
Each row is one welcome offer or recurring promo you’re planning to attack.
How to use this page
Think of each row as one promo you're planning to clear. For each, pick the structure (bonus bet, no sweat, profit boost, deposit match, playthrough), plug in basic sizing information, and the tool gives you a very rough expected value.
You can refine the math later, or tie this into your more detailed calculators. The point here is to ballpark the total edge from grinding through a set of offers.
One-way stake: you only keep the winnings, not the stake. People often treat these as worth roughly 60–70% of face value when hedged optimally. Finding the right market between sportsbooks can take time if you are going for that highest threshold. For reference, a market with with outcomes at +300 and -350 odds gives a conversion rate of 0.67.
If your bet loses, you get a bonus bet back. In practice, this means a no sweat wager effectively only risks losing 30–40% of your stake depending on your set bonus bet conversion rate.
A % boost on your net profit up to some max stake. The rough EV depends on both the boost % and the true edge of the underlying bet; here we approximate it from boost % and max stake.
Deposit matches give you extra funds with rollover. Playthrough offers are effectively discounts (or taxes) on the total amount you have to bet. The sliders on this page let you encode how punishing those requirements feel per dollar rolled. Since you will be hedging wagers on other sportsbooks, this consideration may be relevant if you make those hedges on a sportsbook requiring playthrough.