US Sports Betting Platforms New User Promotional Value
New User Promotional Risk Free Estimated Value by State
Plan To Maximize Promotions
Estimating the value of sportsbook promotions is inherently imprecise because the amount of guaranteed profit depends heavily on the markets used for hedging. Two users receiving the exact same promotion can achieve very different returns depending on the quality of the markets they hedge on.
This map is designed to estimate what a reasonably informed user should be able to extract without spending hours searching for perfect opportunities. The goal is not to estimate the absolute maximum value of every promotion, but rather a relatively conservative estimate that should be achievable by most users.
Several assumptions drive these estimates. First, I assume users understand the basic hedging concepts discussed on the Strategy Page and are comfortable using the calculators on this site. Second, I assume major sporting events are currently available, allowing access to liquid markets with reasonable hedge opportunities. In practice, NBA moneyline markets often provide some of the easiest opportunities to execute quickly because of their liquidity and frequent presence of large favorites. As such, my bonus value estimate suggestion would increase slightly during the NBA regular season.
The timing of registration also matters. Sportsbooks routinely increase promotional spending around major sporting events like the Super Bowl, March Madness, or the FIFA World Cup. Additionally, promotions, typically of smaller value as compared to the platform's new-user promotions, will likley continue for the first few weeks and on after registration. The values shown here are intended to represent the opportunities available only as part of a new-user promotions and any friend referral value that comes from registration.
The availability of efficient hedge markets is another important factor. Depending on the state you are in, the potential number of hedge platforms may very limited and thus it is harder to find an acceptable market. While I would not worry about this too much, it does trivially mean a promotion on a book in one state can actually be worth more if that state has a lot of legal sports betting platforms than if that promotion was offered by the same book in a state with very few hedgeing platforms to use.
I intentionally avoid assuming the use of premium odds-comparison services when constructing these values. Tools such as OddsJam (which do offer free trials) can often identify significantly better opportunities than even the odds scraper on this site. If you were to use one of these services and understood how they worked, than the value estimations should indeed be raised.
Missing Sports Betting Platforms
I have tried extensively to cover all operational US sports betting platforms with meaningful extractable value, along with their most up to date promotions, but it is of course possible I am missing profitable oppurtunities on platforms I am not aware. On that point, there are a few sports betting platforms that I did not list because of how limited the promotional value they hold. There are also legal sports betting platforms that I don't include in certain states or at all because they offer no new user promotional value -- for example theScore operates in NY but given the lack of a new user promotion it does not show up in the map for that state. Going outside the U.S. and onto offshore sportsbooks, I include only BetOnline because it is the most popular, safe, and well regarded sportsbook in its industry.