US Sports Betting Platforms New User Promotional Value
See below for explanation on thinking process to determine estimating values
New User Promotional Lower Bound Risk Free Estimated Value by State
State Details
Plan To Maximize Promotions
Estimating the value of a new user promotional value is incredibly tricky because the arbitrage profit drastically changes depending on what market you choose to bet both sides of. For example, using tools like OdssJam which offer free trials can help you find these oppurtunities that may be tougher or simply require a lot of time to find manually. High profit oppurtunities are also of course dependent on when you are signing up and what sports are going on -- from a manual perspective, NBA moneyline basketball games typically present quick and high profit markets for bonuses since they are high liquid events in the US that often have big favorites. The time of registration is also key because certain major sporting events like the Super Bowl are accompanied with tons of extra boosts for new and existing customers -- not to say these promotions won't be offered if you registered 6 months previously, but my valuations stem from value in the couple days after registration. Finally, it's incredibly importantant to consider how tight the hedge betting platforms, specifically if NoVig (or another peer-to-peer social sportsbook exchange with 0% fees) is operational in your current location -- there may be higher profit margins in nicher markets across traditional sportsbook, but typically these are valuable tools.
Probably the most important thing though that I wanted to ensure in these evaluations is that I didn't want to over emphasize the potential value of a new user promotion in the hands of someone new to sports betting who doesn't wish to spend a lot of time actually finding markets and determining hedge sizes. After all, my promise here is that at least half of the time spent should be on simply registering and completing KYC verification. With that said, I will be assuming you understand the basic math/odd strategy that I explain on the strategy page, you are able to use the calculator tools here to determine hedge sizes, and there are popular sporting events occurring with major favorites and a relatively low vig market when comparing across the best lines in all available sports betting platforms (I emphasize again that during the NBA regular season and likely during the playoffs as well, these oppurtunites can be found manually in minutes almost every day betting moneyline markets no matter which betting platform is offering the promotion). On that point, to save time but still finding markets manually, going to https://www.oddschecker.com/us/basketball/nba is a quick and easy site which dislays the moneyline odds of NBA games for some, but definitely not all, of traditional sportsbooks in your current state. I will also be assuming you have enough of a bank roll to properly hedge both sides of a market (specifally for BetMGM's new user promotion, total capital spent on both sides could easily surpass $5500). Even though I highly reccomend getting a free trial of OddsJam, I will not be assuming you are using this tool because with it I would significantly increase my estimations. Ultimately then I decided to base almost all my estimation for risk free certain profit from a promotion using the assumption a bonus bet dollar in one of the 13 states where NoVig is not operational has a roughly 65%, the stake of a no sweat wager offers nearly a 39% profit oppurtunity, and losses from playthrough requirements are estimated a tad higher than what I would hope they should be. In states where NoVig is operational (4Cx has similarly tight odds and is operational in a large subset of these states + DC), I raise the bar slightly so that a bonus bet dollar has a a roughly 70% conversion rate and the stake of a no sweat wager offers nearly a 44% profit oppurtunity.
If I were not using OddsJam and I only allowed myself a maximum of a few minutes to find a market to bet both sides of, I would agree that these thresholds are appropriate. Keep in mind of course that these estimations then only use the worst case acceptable markets, which means that most of the time you would be getting more value.
If you are wondering why I keep mentioning that these estimations come under the assumption that you are not utilizing OddsJam and its free trial, it is because the tool can often find incredible market oppurtunities but naturally these returns are market dependent and can vary drastically. For instance, you may find through it in just seconds actual arbitrage markets available without the use of promotions and an oppurtinity for a bonus bet to have over 90% conversion rate. This is amazing but the map I've constructed here is built on the base acceptable extraction values that I can confidently assert with near certainly will be quickly findable and available to all users on every sports betting platform.
Missing Sports Betting Platforms
I have tried extensively to cover here all operational US sports betting platforms with meaningful extractable value, along with their most up to date promotions, but it is of course possible I am missing profitable oppurtunities on platforms I am not aware. On that point, there are a few sports betting platforms that I did not list because of how limited the promotional value they hold. There are also legal sports betting platforms that I don't include in certain states or at all because they offer no new user promotional value.
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